Gerald Fitzgerald’s Market Review October 7th

LAST WEEK IN 30 SECONDS...

The fallout from the current global trade stand-off ratcheted up with markets selling off sharply during midweek as US manufacturing data indicated warning signs of a recessionary environment. Sentiment improved somewhat towards the end of the week, however, global equities finished the week in the red and down 1.2%.

The negative sentiment in markets saw further positive movement in perceived “safe haven” assets including the Japanese Yen and gold. US treasury yields dipped as the probability increased for another US interest rate cut before year end. The US 10-year treasury yield finished the week down 0.16%.

THIS WEEK IN 30 SECONDS...

The week ahead sees politics taking centre stage as Chinese negotiators visit Washington as part of the ongoing trade discussions, whilst Boris Johnson continues to seek changes to the proposed withdrawal agreement. Meanwhile, Donald Trump will be waiting by the phone this week and hoping for a call from the Nobel Prize Committee rather than an impeachment call.

From an economic data perspective, German industrial production data is due for release on Tuesday whilst US inflation and consumer sentiment data are disclosed on Thursday and Friday respectively.

MARKETS – ALL YOU NEED IS ABOVE AVERAGE

Since 2001 global equities have delivered an annualised return of 4.2%. What might surprise is how this has been achieved through daily positive returns. Of those daily returns observed, only 53% have been in positive territory. Investing long term is all about the marginal gains.